Overview
- Julia Reuschenbach expects a significantly stronger AfD in the March elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate.
- Recent surveys place the party around 20 percent in both states, following 2025 Bundestag highs in some western small towns.
- Reuschenbach ties the rise to struggling small and mid-sized towns facing deindustrialization, service withdrawal, out-migration and aging populations.
- Migration and internal security remain the dominant issues for AfD voters, reinforced by debates such as the “Stadtbild” discussion.
- Commentary warns of democratic erosion and cautions that poor results for governing parties could ignite internal conflicts, pressure the federal coalition and test the CDU’s pledged firewall.