Overview

• The INSA online survey of 1,000 adults was conducted September 2–9 and reports a 3.1 percentage-point margin of error.
• AfD registers 37 percent versus 25 percent for the CDU, opening a 12-point gap and improving on its 32.8 percent result in 2024.
• BSW falls to 9 percent, leaving the CDU–BSW–SPD bloc at a combined 41 percent compared with 45.5 percent at the last state election.
• The Greens poll at 3 percent and the FDP is grouped under other parties, indicating neither would enter the Landtag; The Left is at 14 percent and the SPD at 7 percent.
• The AfD faction led by Björn Höcke is under observation by the state constitutional protection service, and pollsters stress that such surveys reflect a momentary mood rather than a forecast.