Overview
- The latest INSA Sonntagstrend (surveyed Sept. 29–Oct. 2; n=1,186; ±2.9 points) puts the AfD at 26 percent as the largest party, with the Union at 24 percent and the SPD at 14 percent for a combined 38 percent, the governing bloc’s lowest since May.
- A separate INSA Meinungstrend published Monday shows the AfD at a record 26.5 percent versus 24.5 percent for the Union, with Union and SPD together at 39 percent in that snapshot.
- INSA’s Hermann Binkert calculates Union and SPD have lost about seven points since the Feb. 23 federal election, leaving them roughly six points short of a parliamentary majority under current thresholds.
- Regional polling highlights the trend: INSA finds the AfD at 23 percent in Rheinland-Pfalz, ahead of the SPD on 22 percent and behind the CDU on 27 percent, with FDP and BSW at 4 percent below the 5 percent hurdle.
- Civey’s monthly state survey for Saxony records the AfD at about 37 percent versus 27 percent for the CDU, reinforcing strong eastern support as analysts caution that polls are snapshots and small-party swings can reshape coalition math.