Overview
- The INSA Sunday-trend conducted December 30 to January 2 records the AfD at 26% and the CDU/CSU at 25%, with the SPD on 14%.
- The Greens and the Left each register 11%, BSW and the FDP come in at 4% apiece, and other parties total 5%.
- INSA’s Hermann Binkert notes that 13% support parties likely below the 5% threshold, making a Bundestag majority feasible with roughly 44% of the vote.
- The governing CDU/CSU plus SPD reach only 39%, about six points below their February 2025 election result, underscoring the absence of a straightforward majority.
- A Union–AfD majority of 51% is mathematically possible yet rejected by the Union, leaving a Union–SPD–Greens combination at 50% as the sole workable coalition, with parts of the AfD classified by the domestic intelligence service as right-wing extremist.