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AEMO Warns of Blackout Risk if Eraring Shuts Before Grid-Stabilising Equipment Arrives

Stabilising equipment will not be online until 2028.

Overview

  • AEMO’s latest report flags a heightened system security risk from 2027 and says it may need to intervene with contracts or directions, which could add costs for consumers.
  • Transgrid’s synchronous condensers are not expected until at least 2028, while NSW says it has legislated to fast‑track their delivery by 18 months and is preparing contingency measures.
  • Origin Energy maintains 2027 as the base-case closure for Eraring and retains an option to extend operations to 2029 as it considers scenarios with authorities.
  • Eraring supplies about a quarter of NSW’s electricity and supports Victoria and Queensland, making its retirement a pivotal test for the eastern grid.
  • Rapid growth in rooftop solar is reducing traditional inertia, driving a push for batteries and other stabilising technology as political leaders clash over interim fossil backup and investment pace.