Overview

• AEMO’s latest reliability snapshot says enough new renewables, storage and transmission are expected to keep the system reliable as coal retires, provided projects arrive on schedule.
• The operator forecasts a small 80 MW reliability gap for Queensland in 2025–26 due to reduced generator availability, higher peak demand and delayed commissioning, lifting blackout risk this summer.
• Reliability gaps previously projected for New South Wales in 2027–28 and Victoria in 2028–29 have been removed under the on‑time delivery scenario.
• A record 4.4 GW of generation and storage was commissioned in the year to June, with 5.2–10 GW a year expected over coming years as policy support drives investment.
• A potential 2026–27 gap in South Australia hinges on Project EnergyConnect and the Torrens Island B timeline, while governments pursue short‑term life extensions for thermal plants and AEMO projects about 21% demand growth over the decade.