Overview
- ADP’s new weekly estimate shows private employers cut an average 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ended Oct. 25, signaling late-month weakening.
- The reading contrasts with ADP’s report last week of a 42,000 October private‑payroll gain and an earlier mid‑October four‑week average of 14,250 added jobs, with ADP citing inconsistent hiring late in the month.
- With official BLS data delayed by the government shutdown, policymakers and investors are relying more on private trackers to gauge employment conditions.
- Forecasts point to an October nonfarm payroll decline, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 50,000 drop and a Dow Jones survey pointing to a 60,000 decrease alongside a higher unemployment rate.
- Additional signs of strain include more than 1 million announced job cuts this year and job postings on Indeed at their lowest since February 2021, developments that could bolster the case for further Fed rate cuts.