Overview
- ADP’s new weekly four-week average shows private employers cut about 11,250 jobs per week through October 25, signaling a late-month slowdown.
- ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said the labor market struggled to produce jobs consistently during the second half of October.
- The weekly reading contrasts with ADP’s monthly report showing a 42,000 gain in October, highlighting conflicting signals across the firm’s measures.
- Goldman Sachs projects a roughly 50,000 decline in October nonfarm payrolls, citing softer private hiring and a deferred-resignation program that may subtract about 100,000 government jobs.
- With BLS releases delayed by the shutdown, policymakers and markets are leaning on private trackers, and investors expect another quarter-point Fed cut at the December 9–10 meeting.