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ADP Shows Surprise November Job Loss as Small Firms Cut Deeply

With the official report delayed, the ADP reading is the Fed’s clearest labor signal before next week’s meeting, lifting odds of a rate cut.

Overview

  • Private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November, the largest monthly decline in the ADP series since early 2023 and a sharp miss versus forecasts for gains.
  • Establishments with fewer than 50 employees cut about 120,000 jobs, while mid-sized and large firms together added roughly 90,000 positions.
  • Pay growth cooled further as job-stayers saw 4.4% annual wage gains and job-changers 6.3%, pointing to easing labor-cost pressures.
  • Losses were concentrated in professional and business services, information, manufacturing, financial activities and construction, with education and health services and leisure and hospitality still adding jobs.
  • Economists cautioned that ADP often diverges from the government’s tally, and the BLS’s delayed November jobs report is scheduled for Dec. 16.