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ADP Shows Surprise 32,000 Private-Sector Job Loss as Government Data Halt Continues

The government shutdown has paused official labor statistics, elevating ADP’s rebenchmarked figures as the market’s primary signal.

Overview

  • ADP reported private employment fell by 32,000 in September, with August revised to a 3,000 loss from a previously reported 54,000 gain.
  • ADP’s annual recalibration to QCEW data materially lowered recent counts, including an estimated 43,000 reduction to September versus pre-benchmark figures.
  • Small businesses drove the decline as firms with fewer than 50 employees shed 40,000 jobs, while companies with 500 or more workers added 33,000.
  • Sector detail showed losses in leisure and hospitality and in professional and business services, partly offset by gains in education and health services.
  • Wage growth moderated, with pay for job changers slowing to 6.6% year over year and pay for job stayers holding at 4.5%, as earlier BLS data also showed a low 3.2% hiring rate in August.