Overview
- ADP reported private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, a rebound from September’s decline, with gains led by trade/transportation/utilities and education and health.
- Hiring was concentrated at large firms as small and mid-sized businesses shed workers, and ADP said year-over-year pay growth held at 4.5% for job-stayers and 6.7% for job-changers.
- ISM’s services PMI rose to 52.4, its highest in eight months, but the employment index stayed in contraction at 48.2 while the prices-paid gauge climbed to 70.0.
- Regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys pointed to improving production and orders alongside sharply higher input costs and little change in factory employment.
- With BLS releases suspended by the prolonged shutdown, markets leaned on these reports as 10-year Treasury yields rose to about 4.15% and the implied probability of a December Fed cut fell, and economists cautioned ADP is no substitute for official data.