Overview

• ADP estimates private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, the largest drop since March 2023 and far below forecasts for a gain of roughly 45,000–51,000.
• ADP revised August from a 54,000 gain to a 3,000 loss after annual rebenchmarking to QCEW data, a process that reduced recent counts by about 43,000.
• Job cuts were concentrated at small and midsize firms, while companies with 500 or more employees added 33,000; education and health gained 33,000 as leisure and hospitality lost 19,000 and professional and business services fell 13,000.
• Wage growth for job stayers held at 4.5% year over year, while pay gains for job changers slowed to 6.6%, ADP reported.
• With the federal shutdown suspending the BLS jobs report and weekly claims, markets are relying more on private data as recent official readings showed weak August payroll growth near 22,000, unemployment at 4.3%, and a hiring rate of 3.2%.