Overview
- ADP estimated private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September and revised August from a 54,000 gain to a 3,000 loss after its annual recalibration.
- ADP said its QCEW-based rebenchmarking reduced recent counts by about 43,000 and was complicated by a higher-than-normal share of missing or redacted QCEW values.
- Job losses were concentrated at smaller and mid-sized firms, while companies with 500 or more employees added 33,000; education and health gained, but leisure and hospitality and professional and business services declined.
- Pay growth cooled as job changers saw annual increases slip to 6.6%, while job stayers held near 4.5%, indicating easing wage pressures.
- With BLS releases suspended during the shutdown, markets and the Federal Reserve lack the official September payrolls, even as JOLTS showed an August hiring rate of 3.2%, the lowest since 2013 outside the pandemic period.