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3w ago

ADP Reports 32,000 Private Jobs Lost as Shutdown Halts Official Labor Data

With the BLS report delayed by the shutdown, decision‑makers must lean on private indicators subject to rebenchmarking caveats.

American flags are displayed on screens on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 22, 2025. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon/File Photo
People wait in a line outside a newly reopened career center for in-person appointments in Louisville, Kentucky, U.S., April 15, 2021. REUTERS/Amira Karaoud
Job seekers walk in line to a job fair at the Central Florida Fairgrounds attended by employers looking to fill openings on July 10 in Orlando.
A view of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025.

Overview

  • ADP estimated private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September and revised August from a 54,000 gain to a 3,000 loss after its annual recalibration.
  • ADP said its QCEW-based rebenchmarking reduced recent counts by about 43,000 and was complicated by a higher-than-normal share of missing or redacted QCEW values.
  • Job losses were concentrated at smaller and mid-sized firms, while companies with 500 or more employees added 33,000; education and health gained, but leisure and hospitality and professional and business services declined.
  • Pay growth cooled as job changers saw annual increases slip to 6.6%, while job stayers held near 4.5%, indicating easing wage pressures.
  • With BLS releases suspended during the shutdown, markets and the Federal Reserve lack the official September payrolls, even as JOLTS showed an August hiring rate of 3.2%, the lowest since 2013 outside the pandemic period.