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ADP Reports 32,000 Private-Job Loss in September as Shutdown Halts Official Data

The federal shutdown leaves ADP's weaker reading as the key labor gauge.

Overview

  • ADP said private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, the largest drop since March 2023, versus forecasts for a gain of about 45,000–51,000.
  • August was revised from a reported 54,000 gain to a 3,000 loss after ADP’s annual rebenchmarking to the QCEW, which it said included unusually many missing or redacted values.
  • Job cuts were concentrated at smaller firms, with businesses under 50 employees shedding 40,000 roles and midsize firms losing 20,000, while large employers added about 33,000.
  • Sector detail showed education and health services up roughly 33,000, offset by declines in leisure and hospitality (−19,000), professional and business services (−13,000), other services (−16,000), and trade, transportation and utilities (−7,000).
  • Wage growth held at 4.5% for job-stayers and eased to 6.6% for job-changers, as markets and policymakers lean more on private data with BLS releases suspended, including nonfarm payrolls and weekly claims.