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ADP Reports 32,000 Private-Job Loss in September After Sharp August Revision

A federal shutdown has paused official labor reports, putting outsized weight on ADP’s weaker reading for markets and the Fed.

Overview

  • The Labor and Commerce departments said data releases, including the September jobs report and weekly jobless claims, are suspended during the shutdown.
  • ADP reported private employment fell by 32,000 in September and revised August from a 54,000 gain to a 3,000 loss.
  • Job cuts were concentrated at small and midsize firms and in services like leisure and hospitality and professional/business services, while large employers and education and health added about 33,000 positions.
  • ADP noted its annual rebenchmarking to the QCEW faced higher-than-normal missing or redacted values, contributing to larger revisions and added uncertainty.
  • Earlier BLS JOLTS figures showed hiring slowed in August with the hires rate down to 3.2%, and economists say the weakening signals increase the odds of further Fed rate cuts in October.