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Adobe Sees U.S. Online Holiday Sales Hitting $253.4 Billion as Growth Cools, AI and Mobile Surge

Adobe cites consumers seeking value under economic uncertainty, signaling promotions and payment flexibility will steer where spending concentrates.

Overview

  • Adobe projects Nov. 1–Dec. 31 online sales to rise 5.3% to $253.4 billion, aligning with muted outlooks from other major forecasters.
  • Cyber Monday is forecast to be the top day at $14.2 billion, with Cyber Week expected to generate $43.7 billion, or 17.2% of the season’s total.
  • Generative AI–assisted shopping traffic is expected to jump about 520% and peak in the days before Thanksgiving.
  • Mobile devices are set to account for a record 56.1% of online spending, extending the multi‑year shift away from desktop.
  • Buy now, pay later usage is projected to drive $20.2 billion in spending, while discount depths are seen near last year’s levels and early October deal events could spur about $9 billion.