Overview

• Citigroup on September 11 lowered its Adobe price target to $400 and kept a Neutral rating, citing medium‑term pricing strategy risks.
• Piper Sandler on September 12 trimmed its target to $470, maintained Overweight, and cited lower growth assumptions and AI uncertainty tied to a 2029 EV/FCF framework.
• Morgan Stanley on September 24 downgraded Adobe to Equal‑Weight from Overweight and cut its target to $450, pointing to a gap between AI messaging and Digital Media ARR.
• Adobe shares are down about 35% over the past year and 19% year to date as investors question the pace of AI monetization.
• A contrarian thesis highlights Digital Media scale, Firefly’s copyright‑safe tools, margins near 89% and roughly $14 billion in buybacks since March 2024 that reduced share count about 9%, arguing the stock at around 16x trailing free cash flow offers attractive value.