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Adobe Heads Into Q4 Earnings With Modest Beat Expected as Margin Questions Linger

Analysts broadly signal upside potential despite recent target cuts tied to rising operating costs.

Overview

  • Adobe reports fiscal Q4 results on Dec. 10, with Wall Street expecting EPS of about $4.99 on revenue near $6.11 billion versus $5.61 billion a year ago.
  • In Q3, Adobe posted $5.99 billion in revenue and a non-GAAP EPS beat, raised full-year targets, and guided Q4 revenue to $6.075–$6.125 billion.
  • Management says AI-influenced annual recurring revenue has surpassed $5 billion as Digital Media ARR grew 11.7% to $18.59 billion.
  • Cost inflation remains a focus after Q3 operating expenses rose to $3.17 billion, leading Citi to cut its price target to $366 and keep a Neutral rating while still calling for a slight revenue beat.
  • Barclays trimmed its target to $415 with an Overweight rating and modeled roughly $571 million in net new Digital Media ARR, while analysts highlight the $1.9 billion Semrush deal as a potential future lift and consensus targets imply about 40% upside.