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yesterday

Adobe Forecasts $253.4 Billion in U.S. Online Holiday Sales as Growth Cools to 5.3%

The softer outlook reflects shoppers prioritizing value in a higher‑cost environment.

A worker moves products during Cyber Monday at Amazon's fulfillment center in Robbinsville, New Jersey, U.S., December 2, 2024. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
Workers move products during Cyber Monday at the Amazon's fulfillment center in Robbinsville, New Jersey, U.S., November 27, 2023. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo
SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 13: Shoppers walk by a Bath & Body Works store at Fashion Valley, an upscale shopping mall on December 13, 2024 in San Diego, California.
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Overview

  • Cyber Monday is projected to be the top online sales day at $14.2 billion, with Black Friday at $11.7 billion and Thanksgiving at $6.4 billion.
  • Mobile shopping is expected to reach a record 56.1% share of online spend, reflecting continued migration from desktop.
  • Generative AI–assisted shopping traffic is forecast to surge about 520% year over year, peaking in the 10 days before Thanksgiving.
  • Buy-now-pay-later usage is set to drive roughly $20.2 billion in purchases, about $2 billion more than last season.
  • Discounts are expected to mirror last year overall, with electronics peaking near 28% off, and Adobe estimates $9 billion in spending during Amazon’s Oct. 7–8 Big Deal Days and rival events.