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Administration Cuts Degrade Hurricane Forecast Accuracy at Season Start

Staff shortages have prompted NOAA to deploy temporary duty assignments, advertising mission-critical field positions under hiring exceptions.

Image
Floridians feared Hurricane Dorian was headed for the Sunshine State before it curved northward to make landfall over North Carolina's Outer Banks. Dorian is seen on satellite in this image provided by the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch of NOAA/NESDIS at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere.

Overview

  • Central and South Florida NWS offices operate 20–40% below authorized staffing levels, straining forecast operations.
  • Weather balloon launches nationwide have dropped by nearly 20%, reducing upper-atmosphere data critical for storm tracking.
  • NOAA’s hurricane hunter aircraft face the likelihood of fewer reconnaissance missions, heightening risks of misjudging storm intensity.
  • Roughly 1,000 jobs—about 10% of NOAA’s workforce—were cut in recent weeks under the Department of Government Efficiency’s budget reductions.
  • NOAA has initiated short-term Temporary Duty assignments and Reassignment Opportunity Notices to address immediate gaps at field locations.