Overview

• New analysis projects 5.31 million retirements versus 1.82 million young entrants through 2035, roughly one entrant for every three exits.
• Migration is identified as the main offset, with up to 4.5 million arrivals forecast for 2026–2035, about 80% of working age and 70% expected to seek jobs.
• The report highlights barriers that could blunt the impact of inflows, including a housing shortfall and slow recognition of foreign qualifications.
• Andalucía is especially exposed, with about 854,300 older workers set to leave the labor force over ten years and only around 291,000 young people projected to enter.
• Retaining over‑50s through flexible work and boosting productivity with AI and automation are presented as necessary complements that cannot on their own close the replacement gap.