Overview

• Developing Asia is now forecast to expand 4.8% in 2025, down from 4.9%, with growth seen easing further to 4.5% in 2026 as effective tariff protection rises more than 28 percentage points above WTO or FTA levels.
• The ADB says a first‑half boost from front‑loaded shipments ahead of tariffs and strong AI‑related demand will fade, leaving weaker external momentum in late 2025 and into 2026.
• India’s outlook is set at 6.5% for FY26 and 6.5% for FY27, with tariffs expected to curb goods exports even as robust domestic demand and recent monetary easing help cushion the impact.
• Singapore’s 2026 growth forecast is cut to 1.4% from 2.4% on softer external demand tied to U.S. tariffs, with ADB economists flagging exposure in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
• South Korea’s 2025 forecast is held at 0.8% with risks from possible additional U.S. tariffs and weak construction, while Pakistan is projected at 3% growth in FY26 with average inflation near 6% on flood damage and higher gas tariffs.