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ACCA Study Warns Accelerated El Niño Costero Could Raise Amazon Wildfire Risk

Experts say drier-than-normal Amazon conditions could raise large-fire risk by allowing dry biomass to build up alongside routine agricultural burning under weak response protocols.

Overview

  • Mid-July 2026 warnings from Tecnologías para la Conservación Amazónica (ACCA) and biologist Sidney Novoa say an atypical El Niño Costero for 2026–2027 follows consecutive events in 2023–2024 and suggests the coastal El Niño cycle is accelerating.
  • The study and international meteorological projections indicate the event is likely to produce reduced rainfall and longer dry spells in parts of the Peruvian Amazon, creating more days without rain and more dry fuel for fires.
  • Common local practices that use fire to clear fields and renew crops can escape control during prolonged dry conditions, turning routine agricultural burns into large wildfires.
  • Novoa and the coverage identify a lack of suitable protocols to distinguish climatological from human-caused fires and call for stronger prevention, monitoring and response planning at national and local levels.
  • Recommended adaptations include working with farmers to reduce open burns, shifting toward mixed systems that include perennial crops, and scaling community outreach because these steps would lower ignition sources and lessen harm to lives and livelihoods.