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ACA Subsidy Standoff Threatens 2026 Premiums Ahead of Open Enrollment

A fast‑approaching Nov. 1 enrollment window collides with a federal shutdown, compressing decisions for insurers, exchanges, and consumers.

Overview

  • Democrats are tying support for a continuing resolution to extending enhanced premium tax credits, while Republicans say the government must reopen first and signal openness only to a short-term extension.
  • KFF estimates marketplace premiums would more than double nationwide if the expanded credits lapse, with subsidized enrollees paying on average over $1,000 more next year.
  • Colorado’s insurance commissioner warns average Silver‑plan costs could jump about 170% and estimates 75,000–100,000 residents could lose access to care, with premium notices delayed until month’s end.
  • Illinois will open a new state‑based marketplace on Nov. 1 and projects a possible 35% enrollment drop without the enhanced credits after 466,000 enrolled last year.
  • The CBO says making the expansion permanent would add roughly $350 billion to deficits through 2035 but increase coverage by 3.8 million, as insurers and AHIP urge swift congressional action.