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3w ago

ACA Subsidy Standoff Sets Up Sharp 2026 Premium Hikes as Open Enrollment Nears

State notices and insurer filings point to steep 2026 costs with Congress still deadlocked.

Texas advocates are warning of uncertainty during this year’s ACA marketplace open enrollment period due to the expiring federal tax credits at the center of the government shutdown. (Dreamstime/TNS)
Massachusetts Health Connector Executive Director Audrey Morse Gasteier poses for a portrait in the state health insurance marketplace's office Tuesday, July 2, 2025, in Boston.
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Overview

  • The COVID-era expansion of Affordable Care Act premium tax credits, extended by the Inflation Reduction Act, is set to expire after Dec. 31, 2025.
  • Idaho’s early open enrollment shows approved average increases of about 10% for gross premiums and roughly 75% for what consumers pay after credits, or about $1,200 more per year, according to Your Health Idaho.
  • Massachusetts Health Connector says 2026 notices estimate more than $1,300 in average annual premium increases if the enhanced credits are not renewed.
  • Insurer filings indicate a median proposed 18% premium increase for ACA plans next year, and household examples, including an Oregon family, show potential monthly bills rising by roughly 45% without the added aid.
  • The government shutdown has left the subsidy extension tied up in a partisan standoff as open enrollment begins Nov. 1, and advocates warn automatic reenrollment could lock people into higher costs or lead to coverage losses if new bills go unpaid.