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56m ago

ACA Subsidy Fight Drives Third Day of Shutdown as Polls Favor Extension

Analysts warn the lapse of enhanced tax credits would double many marketplace premiums next year.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., center, flanked by Rep. Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., left, and Rep. Katherine Clark, D-Mass., arrives to speak on the steps of the Capitol to insist that Republicans include an extension of expiring health care benefits as part of a government funding compromise, in Washington, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
House Democrats prepare to speak on the steps of the Capitol to insist that Republicans include an extension of expiring health care benefits as part of a government funding compromise, in Washington, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
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Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., and GOP leaders, from left, Rep. Lisa McClain, R-Mich., Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., blame the government shutdown on Democrats during a news conference at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Overview

  • Democrats are refusing a short‑term funding bill without an agreement to extend enhanced Affordable Care Act tax credits and roll back recent Medicaid changes, while Republican leaders insist on passing a clean reopening first.
  • New KFF polling shows 78% of Americans want the enhanced subsidies extended, including 59% of Republicans and 57% of self‑identified MAGA supporters, with more respondents saying they would blame the GOP if the credits expire.
  • Insurers are filing substantial 2026 premium increases under uncertainty—Ohio proposals range from about 2.5% to 42%, including Centene at 25%–28%—with state regulators facing mid‑October deadlines and open enrollment starting Nov. 1.
  • The Congressional Budget Office projects roughly 4 million people could lose coverage next year without renewal, and extending the policy carries an estimated federal cost of about $350 billion over ten years.
  • The Wall Street Journal reports White House aides are privately discussing proposals to extend the subsidies, though the president has not decided, as GOP leaders such as John Thune and Mike Johnson say policy talks should wait until the government reopens.