Overview
- Open enrollment starts Nov. 1 with Congress still deadlocked after a monthlong shutdown, leaving enhanced premium aid unresolved.
- Enhanced tax credits that help roughly 22 million enrollees are set to lapse Dec. 31, 2025, and KFF estimates out-of-pocket premiums would jump about 114% on average in 2026 without them.
- Insurers have filed significantly higher 2026 base rates—about 26% on average nationwide and closer to 30% in HealthCare.gov states—so premiums rise even if subsidies are later extended.
- States are activating contingency measures, including Maryland’s temporary subsidies and California’s plans to rapidly recalculate prices, but officials say implementing changes and sending updated notices could take weeks.
- Analysts warn of coverage losses and market disruption if the credits expire, with the CBO projecting more than 4 million additional uninsured and added risks from automatic reenrollment and stricter repayment rules for income misestimates.