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ACA Marketplace Premiums Poised to Jump in 2026 as Subsidies Expire

KFF pegs a median 18% insurer rate request for 2026 while consumer payments are projected to rise about 75% if enhanced tax credits lapse.

Overview

  • Enhanced premium tax credits end after 2025, removing aid that reached about 93% of enrollees—19.3 million people—who saved roughly $700 a year on average.
  • State regulators are reviewing insurers’ preliminary 2026 filings now, with final rates due this fall and the ultimate impact hinging on congressional action on the credits.
  • Insurers cite rising medical prices and utilization, higher labor costs, provider consolidation, tariffs, and growing use of costly GLP‑1 drugs as key drivers of requested increases.
  • Proposed changes vary widely by market, including average requests near 28% in parts of Colorado, 43% to 59% in Arkansas, and a 66.4% request by UnitedHealthcare in New York.
  • Analysts warn that higher premiums and the loss of subsidies could push healthier consumers out of the market, worsening the risk pool and increasing uncompensated care.