New Nexus/BTG Poll Shows Brazil Race Neck and Neck as Major Candidates Skip Band Debate

Overview

• The Nexus/BTG Pactual poll released August 24 finds Lula leading slightly in first‑round scenarios and a second‑round simulation of Lula 46% to Flávio Bolsonaro 45%, a result within the survey's ±2 percentage‑point margin of error.
• The first televised debate on August 23 had only three participants because Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro and Romeu Zema did not attend, yet the two frontrunners were mentioned 73 times during the broadcast according to a Congresso em Foco count.
• Flávio Bolsonaro posted a video during the debate saying he will only debate Lula while Lula gave a Record interview at the same hour defending the seriousness of the presidency and criticizing some opponents.
• Debate participants used the empty‑pulpit spectacle to revive corruption allegations involving INSS, Banco Master and investigations linked to Fábio Luís 'Lulinha' as they attacked the absentees, though analysts judged the encounter unlikely to change national standings.
• Institutional levers are now central to strategy because the TSE‑allocated free TV campaign time starts August 28 and Lula's coalition has the largest slot, prompting both sides to shift messaging toward scheduled ads and targeted media appearances.