Overview

• AAA also raises its 2025 estimate to 20.7 million, extending a growth run from 16.9 million in 2023 to 19.1 million in 2024 and then higher through 2026.
• Miami, Port Canaveral, and Fort Lauderdale lead expected passenger flows at 10.2%, 8.8%, and 5.6%, with Galveston at 4.1% and Barcelona at 3.9%.
• The Caribbean is projected to capture 72% of U.S. passengers, with Alaska at 7% and the Mediterranean at 5%, helped by demand for shorter sailings.
• Seasonal capacity shapes pricing and availability, with Alaska limited to April–October and Caribbean peaks in November–March alongside summer fare pressures.
• Tourism Economics produced the outlook using Cruise IP itineraries and Oxford Economics’ forecasts, as trends favor mega-vessels on major routes while smaller expedition and luxury ships hold share in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean.