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A Decade On, Most 2015 Refugees Are Working, But New Data Show Waning Welcome in Germany

Differing official datasets fuel a fight over what the employment rate really captures.

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Ein Mann füllt ein Formular aus neben einem Schild des  Bundesamts für Migration und Flüchtlinge
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Overview

  • An IAB study reports that 64% of people who arrived as refugees in 2015 were in dependent employment in 2024, close to the 70% rate in the overall population, with 90% of employed refugees in social insurance–paying jobs.
  • The same analysis highlights a steep gender gap, with 76% of men employed versus 35% of women, and researchers cite limited childcare access and later course participation as key barriers for mothers.
  • Median gross monthly earnings for full‑time workers from the cohort reached about €2,675 in 2023—roughly 70% of the overall median—while around 34% of their households still received Bürgergeld that year.
  • Regional outcomes diverge sharply, and the IAB links lower employment and pay to areas with stronger anti‑immigrant sentiment, even as many refugees work in shortage and system‑relevant roles such as health care, logistics and transport.
  • A DIW longitudinal survey finds a declining sense of welcome among refugees—down from 84% in 2017 to 65% in 2023—with worries about xenophobia rising, while critics point to Bundesagentur‑für‑Arbeit figures showing lower employment rates of roughly 41% to 48% for broader asylum‑origin groups.