8th Pay Commission Expected to Take Effect From Jan. 1, 2026, With Arrears Accrual Likely

Overview

• An official Cabinet note points to a Jan. 1, 2026 effective date based on decadal precedent, suggesting salaries and pensions would accrue arrears from that date if applied retrospectively.
• The three-member panel chaired by Justice (retired) Ranjana Desai was constituted on Nov. 3, 2025 with an 18‑month mandate ending around May 2, 2027.
• The approved Terms of Reference do not specify a start date, prompting unions to urge the Prime Minister to fix Jan. 1, 2026 as the due date for revised pay.
• The government has stated in Parliament that it is not considering merging Dearness Allowance with basic pay, and DA/DR will continue to be revised biannually using the AICPI‑IW.
• Analysts estimate a fitment factor broadly in the 1.83–2.46 range, implying a minimum basic pay of roughly Rs 32,940–44,280 and a possible fiscal cost of Rs 2.4–3.2 lakh crore concentrated in FY2027‑28.