538 Unveils New Polling Averages for 2024 Presidential Election

The updated models aim to improve accuracy and provide real-time insights into voter preferences with enhanced methodologies.

538 has launched interactive polling averages showing Biden and Trump nearly tied nationally, with Trump leading in key swing states.
The new methodology includes adjustments for polling biases, sample populations, and incorporates a Bayesian multi-level dynamic linear model.
Uncertainty intervals are now published alongside the polling averages to reflect potential variability in voter support.
The models exclude hypothetical matchups and non-major candidates, focusing on Biden versus Trump and other major candidates.
Enhancements include better handling of overlapping tracking polls and more sophisticated weighting based on pollster ratings.