Overview

• The White House doubled earlier duties, lifting the effective levy on polished diamonds from India to 50%, with the new rate taking effect Wednesday.
• Crisil projects FY26 revenues at roughly $12.5 billion, a 22–30% decline from last year and the weakest outcome since 2007.
• Operating margins are seen slipping by 50–100 basis points to about 3.5–4%, with interest coverage near 2x and credit profiles under pressure.
• The US share of India’s polished‑diamond exports fell to about 24% in the first four months after April’s initial tariff, while July shipments were front‑loaded and rose 18% year on year.
• Government duty‑drawback rates were raised on August 25 for select jewellery as partial relief, but rerouting via hubs such as the UAE or Belgium is unlikely to sidestep US tariffs, intensifying risks for Gujarat’s employment‑heavy clusters.