Overview

• The 2025 Production Gap report says planned coal, oil and gas output for 2030 exceeds a 1.5°C path by over 120% and a 2°C path by 77%, with coal roughly 500% above 1.5°C-consistent levels, oil 31% higher and gas 92% higher.
• The gap has widened since 2023 as many countries now foresee higher coal production through 2035 and expanded gas output to 2050, with oil also projected to rise.
• The analysis covers 20 major producers responsible for about 80% of global output and finds 17 still plan to increase at least one fossil fuel by 2030, with 11 raising their production plans since 2023.
• Only the United Kingdom, Australia and Norway project net reductions in oil and gas production by 2030 compared with 2023 levels.
• The authors warn that new projects, subsidies and infrastructure risk locking in emissions and call for just‑transition finance and coordinated policy as leaders convene in New York ahead of COP30.