Overview

• Independent forecasts place the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment near 2.7% from the Senior Citizens League and 2.8% from analyst Mary Johnson.
• The Social Security Administration will set the official COLA on October 15 using third‑quarter CPI‑W data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• A 2.7%–2.8% adjustment would lift the average monthly benefit by roughly $54 to $56 starting with January 2026 payments.
• Medicare Part B premiums are expected to rise to about $206.50 next year, which could absorb a significant share of beneficiaries’ COLA gains.
• Other 2026 shifts include full retirement age reaching 67, an expected Social Security taxable wage base of about $183,600, and higher estimated earnings‑test limits of $24,360 and $64,800.