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2026 Social Security COLA Projected at 2.7%–2.8% After August Inflation Data

Higher Medicare premiums could absorb much of retirees’ expected gain.

Overview

  • New estimates from Mary Johnson and the Senior Citizens League place the 2026 adjustment near 2.7%–2.8%, adding roughly $52–$55 to average monthly checks.
  • The Social Security Administration will set the official figure on October 15 after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September CPI‑W, with changes beginning in January 2026.
  • August consumer prices rose 2.9% year over year and the CPI‑W increased 2.8%, pushing projections slightly higher than last month.
  • Medicare Trustees expect the standard Part B premium to rise $21.50 to $206.50, and less restrictive Part D rules could allow larger premium increases, potentially offsetting much of the COLA.
  • Separately, the Social Security Administration will stop mailing paper checks to nearly 400,000 recipients on September 30 unless they obtain a waiver, shifting payments to direct deposit or prepaid cards.