Overview

• The 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is currently estimated at 2.2%, based on March's inflation data showing a 2.2% rise in the CPI-W.
• This projection marks the lowest COLA increase since 2021, following pandemic-era spikes that reached as high as 8.7% in 2023.
• Uncertainty around tariff policies, including potential increases on Chinese imports, may drive inflation higher and lead to a revised COLA estimate later this year.
• Seniors continue to face financial strain as rising costs for essentials like healthcare and food outpace the inflation metrics used to calculate COLA.
• Debates over ending Social Security benefit taxes add further complexity, with proponents citing relief for retirees and critics warning of potential funding shortfalls for the program.