Particle.news
Download on the App Store

2026 Outlook: Argentine Households Under Strain as Mexico Faces Modest Growth

Forecasters see a tentative pickup restrained by a T‑MEC review, U.S. policy uncertainty plus inflation above target.

Overview

  • Ipsos Talk LATAM 2025 finds 57% of Argentines struggle to reach month‑end versus 43% regionwide and 33% in Mexico, even as optimism for 2026 runs high at 83% in Argentina and 82% in Mexico.
  • Argentina’s consumer confidence rose 6.5 points in November to 46.9, the largest monthly gain among 30 countries, though the level remains low relative to regional peers.
  • Mexico’s 2026 GDP growth forecasts cluster around 1.2%–1.5%, with CEPAL at 1.3% ranking the country near the bottom of Latin America despite a more upbeat range from the Finance Ministry.
  • Analysts say the FIFA World Cup, higher public spending and investment projects could spur a consumption rebound in Mexico after a weak 2025, with exports and nearshoring providing additional support.
  • Risks highlighted include the T‑MEC review and possible U.S. tariff pressures, while inflation projections near 3.6%–3.9% and early‑year tax and tariff effects point to a cautious stance from Banxico.