2026 House Midterms Shape Up as Tight Battle with 18 Toss-Up Races

Democrats need a net gain of three seats to reclaim the House, while Republicans aim to defend their slim majority.

The Cook Political Report identifies 18 House races as toss-ups, with 10 Democratic-held seats and 8 Republican-held seats on the line.
Democrats must gain three seats to flip the House, while Republicans currently hold a narrow 220-215 majority.
Key Democratic vulnerabilities include districts won by Trump in 2024 and areas flipped from red to blue, such as those held by Reps. Jared Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
Republicans face challenges in districts won by Kamala Harris in 2024, including seats held by Reps. Don Bacon and Brian Fitzpatrick.
Both parties are strategizing to address historical midterm trends, with Republicans focusing on solidifying the 'Trump coalition' and Democrats revamping messaging to regain working-class and minority support.