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2026 Health Insurance Costs Poised for Sharpest Rise in 15 Years as Subsidy Expiration Nears

Medical inflation plus the loss of enhanced ACA subsidies is set to push premiums sharply higher.

Overview

  • Large employers project roughly a 9% increase in 2026 health benefit costs, the steepest since about 2010–2011, with most preparing to shift more costs to workers, surveys by Mercer, Aon and WTW show.
  • ACA marketplace insurers have filed for median premium hikes near 18%–20% for 2026, with some proposals far higher, including reported requests around 30%+ in Colorado and up to the mid‑60% range in New York.
  • Congress eliminated the enhanced pandemic‑era ACA premium tax credits in July, and analyses indicate many enrollees could face about a 75% jump in what they pay next year unless subsidies are restored.
  • Official data show medical care prices rising about 4.2% annualized in August, while employers and insurers cite higher hospital and outpatient charges, greater utilization, and costly specialty drugs such as GLP‑1s and new cancer therapies as key drivers.
  • With open enrollment for 2026 beginning Nov. 1 and state rate reviews underway, many employers are weighing plan redesigns, tighter drug eligibility, narrower or tiered networks, and potential PBM or insurer changes.