Overview
- Major forecasts point to an oversupplied oil market in early 2026, with the IEA projecting a surplus approaching 4 million barrels per day and Morgan Stanley seeing a peak near 3 million barrels per day in the first half.
- EIA data highlight Brazil and Guyana as contributing nearly half of projected global oil supply growth in 2026 as their offshore and pre-salt developments accelerate.
- PJM’s late-2025 capacity auction delivered sharply higher prices, signaling a shortage of reliable, dispatchable power across the largest U.S. grid.
- New U.S. LNG facilities at Golden Pass in Texas and Plaquemines in Louisiana are slated to start up in 2026, expanding liquefaction capacity, connecting U.S. gas to global buyers, and putting a firmer floor under domestic prices.
- TD Cowen expects accelerating power demand from AI data centers, EVs and autonomy that could reach up to 9% of U.S. electricity by 2035, and both TD Cowen and Morgan Stanley emphasize natural gas for near-term reliability, with Morgan Stanley preferring gas-focused names such as EQT and Antero.