Overview
- Global forecast centres including the WMO, Met Office and NOAA now treat a very strong, likely record or 'super' El Niño as the baseline through at least February 2027 with peak intensity expected late 2026.
- The event is driven by exceptionally warm sea surface and deep ocean heat in the Niño 3.4 region that forecasters say will change large-scale weather patterns and amplify extremes.
- Governments and firms in the UK are urging household preparedness with guidance such as keeping around three days of food and drinking water in case of storm-driven disruptions.
- Early impacts have already appeared with severe drought, widespread wildfires and toxic haze in parts of Southeast Asia and signs of crop stress in multiple growing regions.
- Analysts and aid agencies warn of economic and humanitarian ripple effects, including projected spikes in global food commodity prices and stepped-up WMO and UN forecasting and readiness work.