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2w ago

2026 ACA Marketplace Premiums Poised for Sharp Rise as Subsidies End

New IRS subsidy schedules under tighter CMS regulations will boost net premiums for subsidized enrollees by roughly 75 percent

Isabella Ku, a San Francisco insurance agent, poses for a portrait on Jan. 24, 2020, in San Francisco. Health insurance premiums for Californians buying coverage through Covered California will rise by an average of 10.3% in 2026, the state marketplace announced Thursday. 
President Barack Obama signs the Affordable Health Care for America Act during a ceremony with fellow Democrats in the East Room of the White House March 23, 2010 in Washington, DC.
Health insurance premiums for Californians buying coverage through Covered California will rise by an average of 10.3% in 2026, the state marketplace announced Thursday. 
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Overview

  • Congress has not moved to extend enhanced ACA premium tax credits set to expire at the end of 2025, leaving subsidy levels scheduled to revert to lower pre-ARPA rates.
  • The IRS’s newly published 2026 subsidy schedule raises the share of income households must pay for benchmark plans by more than a full percentage point at many income levels.
  • CMS’s finalized Marketplace Integrity and Affordability Rule tightens income verification and inflation calculations while pausing enforcement of short-term plan duration limits.
  • Preliminary insurer filings for 2026 propose a median premium increase of 18 percent, with many carriers seeking hikes above 20 percent and some states, such as Texas, averaging over 30 percent.
  • Analysts warn that the combined impact of subsidy rollback, regulatory changes and medical inflation could drive net costs for subsidized enrollees up roughly 75 percent and shrink the marketplace risk pool.