2025 Budget Law Accelerates Social Security Insolvency to Late 2032, Trustees Warn

Trustees and the Social Security actuary project the OASI trust fund will run dry by 2033–34 and pay only about 77 percent of scheduled benefits thereafter, with some estimates now pointing to late 2032. Provisions in the 2025 budget law, including extended income tax cuts on benefits and a senior deduction, could drain nearly $170 billion from the retirement trust fund between 2025 and 2034. More than 70 million Americans rely on Social Security, receiving average monthly checks of roughly $1,800 to $2,000, and face potential automatic cuts of about 20 percent without congressional action. Lawmakers have floated remedies such as taxing earnings above $400,000, establishing a bipartisan investment fund and modestly raising the retirement age, but benefit reductions remain politically unpopular. The SSA is grappling with worsening customer service, with average call wait times soaring to 99 minutes and fewer than 40 percent of callers reaching a representative amid rising policy uncertainty.

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