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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Predicts Above-Average Activity

Colorado State University researchers project 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, driven by warm Atlantic waters and neutral ENSO conditions.

A satellite image shows Hurricane Ernesto in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Aug. 15, 2024.
Hurricane Helene is seen in a satellite photo on September 26, 2024.
Keith and his wife Angel, check on their sailboat that ended up on the sidewalk near Sarasota Bay after Hurricane Milton made landfall in Sarasota on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. (Carline Jean/South Florida Sun Sentinel)
This NOAA weather satellite image of the Caribbean Sea taken last July shows Hurricane Beryl crossing into the eastern Caribbean. At the time, Hurricane Beryl packed maximum sustained winds of 150 mph as a high-end Category 4 storm.

Overview

  • The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be 25% more active than the 1991–2020 average, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes expected.
  • Warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures are a key factor fueling the forecasted above-average hurricane activity.
  • ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to prevail, reducing the chances of El Niño, which typically suppresses hurricane formation.
  • The U.S. coastline faces a 51% probability of a major hurricane making landfall, with heightened risks for the Gulf Coast (33%), East Coast (26%), and Caribbean (56%).
  • Experts emphasize the need for coastal communities to prepare, as even a single hurricane landfall can cause significant damage.