Overview
- New analyses estimate the 2024 global average at about 1.55°C above pre‑industrial levels (±0.13°C), a single‑year spike that does not yet constitute the IPCC’s multi‑decade threshold.
- Scientists place current long‑term warming near 1.4°C and project a sustained exceedance of 1.5°C around 2028–2029 if present trends continue.
- An El Niño surge helped drive 2024’s peak, while a developing La Niña is expected to pull 2025 below 1.5°C on a yearly basis.
- Evidence points to faster warming of roughly 0.25–0.3°C per decade, with reduced cloud cover and lower aerosol pollution decreasing Earth’s reflectivity and potentially amplifying greenhouse‑gas heating.
- UN chief António Guterres says an overshoot in the next few years is now likely, and researchers note that even immediate, steep emissions cuts would hold temperatures near today’s levels before any gradual decline.