Overview
- Opinion polls this year show a clear shift in public mood with a majority of Britons saying the 2016 vote was a mistake and visible pro‑rejoin campaigns pressing for a formal bid to return to the EU.
- European diplomats told reporters they are open to discussing UK membership only if Britain accepts binding obligations such as single‑market or customs alignment, budget contributions and regulatory convergence.
- Small and medium businesses report ongoing costs from new border checks and paperwork, with an FSB study finding 63% of firms trading with the EU faced significant commercial obstacles in the past 12 months.
- Migration and asylum remain potent political issues that helped produce recent local gains for Reform UK in places such as Sunderland and have reshaped local electoral dynamics in several former Leave strongholds.
- London and Brussels have pursued a cautious rapprochement since a 2025 security partnership, and a UK‑EU summit on 22 July is expected to deliver modest, sectoral steps rather than a path to rapid re‑entry, while analysts estimate Brexit has cut UK GDP per capita by roughly 6–8% since 2016.