Overview
- Global equities climbed this week after U.S. data showed cooling price pressures with July consumer and wholesale inflation prints coming in softer than before, reducing near-term pressure for another rate move.
- Traders have sharply cut the chance of a September Fed hike to roughly 35–40 percent, a shift that helped push U.S. stocks to record levels and supported demand for Treasuries in parts of the curve.
- Oil surged to the mid‑$80s per barrel after ceasefire talks stalled and U.S. officials warned they could sustain a naval blockade of Iranian ports, reviving the risk that higher energy costs could lift inflation.
- Large Treasury auctions this week forced 10‑ and 30‑year yields to multiyear highs, which has kept mortgage and corporate borrowing costs elevated and helped the dollar hold gains.
- The market is split between strong AI‑linked earnings that have driven stock gains and persistent headline risks from the Middle East and currency strains such as the weak yen, leaving the rally vulnerable to a sharp reversal.